Holiday shoppers start later as early buying falls to 38%

What happened

Fewer consumers are starting their holiday shopping early this year, but overall spending remains on a steady path, according to a new report from Bank of America. Only 38% of consumers said they have shopped or plan to shop early in 2026, down from 52% in 2025, the bank said in a press release.

Bank of America Institute data through September suggests holiday spending has made a healthy start despite the slower early pace. Looking ahead, 48% of shoppers expect to spend the same as last year, 39% plan to spend less and 12% expect to spend more. Mary Hines Droesch, head of consumer and small business products and analytics at Bank of America, said that consumers are being more deliberate this year, from setting their own timelines to staying focused on their budgets.

The report also points to caution around newer digital tools. 72% of consumers do not plan to use artificial intelligence tools for holiday shopping. Retail Customer Experience also reported on the findings, framing the season as one shaped by later, more budget-led decisions.

Why it matters

For experience leaders, the headline is less about lost demand than about compressed and more deliberate decision-making. When shoppers set their own timelines and anchor on personal budgets rather than peer influence, the moments that count shift away from early-season campaigns and towards the final weeks. In that window, price clarity, delivery reliability and returns confidence are likely to carry more weight. Retailers that have planned around a long, gradual build-up may find demand concentrated into a shorter period.

The AI finding is a separate signal. Most shoppers are not yet planning to use AI tools for holiday purchases, which suggests that assistive or conversational shopping features will need to earn trust through clear, useful experiences rather than being assumed as the default route to purchase.

By the numbers

• 38% of consumers have shopped or plan to shop early in 2026, down from 52% in 2025.
• 48% expect to spend the same as last year, while 39% plan to spend less and 12% plan to spend more.
• Nearly two-thirds of shoppers base their spending strictly on personal budgets rather than peer influence.
• 72% of consumers do not plan to use artificial intelligence tools for holiday shopping.

The Renascence take

Most coverage will read this as a calendar story. It is really a decision-architecture story: shoppers are rebuilding their own timelines, and that shifts where a brand actually has leverage.

The shopper who waits is not necessarily disengaged; often they have simply been given no reason to commit yet. Operators who still treat early-season promotions as the main event are optimising for a calendar their customers have stopped following. The practical move is to design for the deliberate buyer: make price, stock and delivery promises visible early, let budgeting tools do the persuading, and earn any AI-assisted journey through transparency rather than novelty.