Holiday Shoppers Start Earlier, Budgets Rise to $849

What happened

A new Yahoo DSP study shows US holiday shoppers are starting earlier and planning to spend more this year. According to the 2026 Holiday Shopping Study, 24% of consumers now expect to begin their holiday shopping in summer, nearly double the 13% who said the same last year, while early fall remains the single most popular starting point, cited by 45% of respondents.

Planned spending is also rising. The average holiday shopping budget stands at $849, up $61 from $788 in 2025, and 90% of consumers expect to spend the same as or more than they did last year — despite continuing concerns about prices and the broader economy.

Why it matters

The data points to a widening gap between how consumers feel about the economy and how they actually plan to behave. Stated price anxiety is not translating into pullback; instead, shoppers are compressing their decision window earlier in the year while quietly raising their budgets. For retailers and brands, that shift changes when and how the "moment of consideration" happens — campaigns, offers and inventory planning calibrated to a traditional November-December peak risk missing a growing share of demand that is already locking in by summer and early autumn.

This is a classic behavioural economics signal: intent and anxiety coexist, but anchoring, habit and anticipation of scarcity or price rises can push commitment earlier even as stated sentiment stays cautious. Experience and marketing teams that read only the sentiment data — and not the behavioural timing data — may plan for a season that no longer matches actual shopper conduct.

By the numbers

• 24% of US consumers expect to start holiday shopping in summer 2026, versus 13% in 2025
• 45% plan to begin holiday shopping in early fall, the most popular starting point
• $849 is the average planned holiday shopping budget, up from $788 last year
• $61 increase in average planned spend year-on-year
• 90% of consumers expect to spend the same or more than they did last year

The Renascence take

The headline risk here isn't the budget increase — it's the calendar shift. Most retail experience strategies are still built around a single peak event, but the data suggests the "season" is becoming a rolling, earlier-starting behaviour rather than a fixed date on the calendar.

What's easy to miss is that stated economic anxiety and actual spending commitment are not the same signal — and treating them as one leads to under-investment in early-season experience. The behavioural driver at play is loss-aversion-led anticipation: shoppers who expect prices or availability to worsen act sooner to lock in certainty, regardless of how cautious they say they feel. A customer-obsessed operator should stop asking "will people spend less this year" and start asking "when will they decide" — shifting service readiness, staffing, and personalised offers earlier rather than saving the experience investment for a peak that increasingly arrives too late.